Iran War Just Made Africa's Energy Crisis Catastrophic. Here's Who's Getting Rich

The Iran war that exploded on February 28 just triggered what the International Energy Agency is calling the most severe oil supply shock in history. And Africa is fracturing into winners and losers faster than anyone predicted.

Eric Wainaina drives a motorcycle taxi in Nairobi, Kenya. He works six days a week, starting at 6:30am, to support a wife and three children. Before the war, he’d cover 180 kilometers daily. Now? Ninety. His monthly income has been sliced in half.

“We can’t work as much as we usually would because the price of petrol is so high,” he told Al Jazeera. Diesel prices in Kenya surged 24 percent to $1.60 per litre during the conflict. His customer count cratered from 20-30 daily rides to fewer than 10.

Here’s the brutal math: Goldman Sachs estimates that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure have yanked 14.5 million barrels per day from global production. That’s a 57 percent decline.

Kenya is scrambling to survive. The World Bank is considering a $600 million emergency loan to shield the economy. But Kenya’s got a massive problem: it imports more than 70 percent of its refined fuel, according to the Africa Finance Corporation. The continent produces 12 percent of global oil reserves yet remains desperately dependent on imports.

The Africa Finance Corporation just warned of an 86-million-tonne fuel shortfall by 2040. The African Energy Chamber cautioned that the continent keeps exporting low-value crude while importing expensive refined products-a catastrophic gap.

But Nigeria? Nigeria is absolutely winning. As Africa’s largest oil producer and exporter, Nigerian oil companies just pocketed a $4 billion windfall. Bonny Light crude surged 66 percent since the war started-from $70.14 per barrel to $116.84. Vanguard reported Nigerian oil firms can now raise cash for investments far more easily.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is also benefitting because it controls critical minerals needed to replace destroyed US defence systems. The war created opportunities that didn’t exist before.

Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, told Al Jazeera this isn’t uniquely African: “When you have a global shock like this, it affects everyone.” She noted Asia’s supply chain damage has actually been worse due to Gulf petroleum dependence.

Still, Kenya faces a perfect storm: fiscal pressure ahead of next year’s election, energy import dependence, and zero breathing room. Meanwhile, Wainaina warns his family might have to abandon Nairobi for rural subsistence living if conditions don’t improve soon.