Biden Pushing Aoun-Netanyahu Summit Could Spark Civil War in Lebanon

Battles are raging across southern Lebanon right now, and the White House just threw gasoline on the fire.

President Joseph Aoun is facing enormous pressure to meet directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a planned White House visit later this month. The problem? It could blow the country apart.

No formal date has been set, but the diplomatic push comes just weeks after Israel and Lebanon held their first direct negotiations in decades last month - a decision that absolutely infuriated Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political and military powerhouse that draws its support primarily from Lebanon’s Shia community.

The Domestic Explosion Waiting to Happen

Aoun, a Maronite Christian, shaking hands with Netanyahu would be perceived as a devastating betrayal by vast swaths of Lebanon. Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert at the Atlantic Council, spelled it out bluntly: “The sight of President Aoun shaking hands with Netanyahu would have very negative ramifications in Lebanon.”

It gets worse. Netanyahu recently posted a video celebrating the demolition of Lebanese towns and villages. If Aoun appears alongside him in the Oval Office, Lebanese analysts say it would be interpreted as endorsing that destruction.

Hezbollah wanted to end this war, but through indirect negotiations only - and absolutely demands Israeli troop withdrawal first. When they learned about direct talks, they were livid. Now Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a staunch Hezbollah ally, is saying negotiations can’t happen while Israel still occupies Lebanese territory. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt agrees: Lebanon can’t negotiate while under fire.

Why This Is Political Suicide

Aoun already said it’s not happening. “We must first reach a security agreement and stop the Israeli attacks before raising the issue of a meeting,” he declared Monday.

Dania Arayssi, a senior analyst at New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, explained the real game: “The push for an Aoun-Netanyahu summit is being driven by the calendar and by Washington’s appetite for a visible deliverable… the Trump administration is looking for an Abraham Accords-style photo opportunity.”

But here’s the brutal reality: Aoun has zero domestic consensus to pull this off. Over 1.2 million Lebanese remain displaced. Israel has violated the November 2024 ceasefire more than 10,000 times in 15 months. Since March 2 alone, Israeli attacks have killed nearly 2,700 people - including over 100 healthcare workers.

Even Saudi Arabia, which has been quietly trying to build Lebanese consensus on regional policy, isn’t backing this move.

“Aoun doesn’t have clear regional backing, and it’s not just Hezbollah that’s opposed,” said Nadim Houry of the Arab Reform Initiative. “I don’t see him committing political suicide at this point when nothing is to be given.”

The Trump administration’s desperation for a photo op is about to collide with Lebanese reality.